Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Helikitty's avatar

This is interesting. I can see this being a big problem in South Korea bc they make a lot of useful things and we want that to continue. All things being equal, I think replacement fertility is good bc stability is good. But outside of social security which is just a political, not structural problem - raise taxes or print money when few are paying for many - I don’t understand why here and at SB there’s such a push for Natalism. I get why people want govt childcare subsidy and child tax credits because by and large the commentariat has kids and would benefit - and even without kids I agree bc I want cradle to grave luxury UBI for all. But I would much rather, for the sake of the environment and just stability in general, see population decline rather than growth, especially in areas with low state capacity and where David Attenborough films nature, but also in the US. It would be nice to not have to be YIMBY bc population was stable…I dont get the growth is good mindset bc it causes all sorts of problems like decline does. Like bring more immigrants obviously to places that are in decline.

Expand full comment
MamaBear's avatar

Your post doesn't touch upon the cultural and social issues underlying massively declining birthrates. South Koreans aren't even having 1 baby per person. Western European is also graying and dying. These are cultures in which the people, as an ethnicity and culture, have lost the will to live. To me, it is the equivalent of someone slowly starving themselves to death. Not because they want to die but because they cannot be bothered to eat enough food. It's the apathy that is most concerning.

I'm not so sure that the graying population won't lead to instability, war and famine. I recall reading somewhere about Ukraine's precipitous population fall post-WWII. It wasn't Russian's doing this to them. Now look at Ukraine. Weakened with a smaller population, war killing its men and the women and children driven elsewhere, likely never to return. They will marry and settle down into their host countries and being Ukrainian will cease to have any meaning, other than eating beets once a week. What will happen when youthful Africa looks to old, gray and dying Europe for example? Or Turks and Azeris, already numerous, look at a old and dying Armenia, unable to replicate itself. I think the dropping TFR will lead to a new epoch, with conquest and war and death.

Expand full comment
8 more comments...

No posts