Fantastic post, and I basically agree with all of these. That being said, could you expand on "the “average” is a forward-looking average of expectation" - How exactly would you structure this?
The 1 year PCE is still > 2%; 2.51%; three months is below and we still have the lag of owner-occupied housing = average rental. The Fed has done it. It can reduce the EFFR by a bit and see what happens.
You are right; PCE is NOT below 2.0% I'm saying that on approaching a stop sign, you don't wait for the car to jerk to a halt before easing up on the brake. 2.5% taking into consideration the lag on owner occupied housing merits easing up on dis-inflation with a tentative reduction in EFFR.
Fantastic post, and I basically agree with all of these. That being said, could you expand on "the “average” is a forward-looking average of expectation" - How exactly would you structure this?
Thomas - you indicated earlier today PCE is down to 2% already, can you point us to a source ?
The 1 year PCE is still > 2%; 2.51%; three months is below and we still have the lag of owner-occupied housing = average rental. The Fed has done it. It can reduce the EFFR by a bit and see what happens.
Thomas - I looked for it, and am not seeing it below 2%. Can you please point me to a direct source ? so, this is one month, and they are all above 2% - https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index
You are right; PCE is NOT below 2.0% I'm saying that on approaching a stop sign, you don't wait for the car to jerk to a halt before easing up on the brake. 2.5% taking into consideration the lag on owner occupied housing merits easing up on dis-inflation with a tentative reduction in EFFR.