Hi Thomas -- what do you think would be the odds of someone writing something like this --that would cause Trump to change his mind (what he has left) concerning his "understanding" of teriffs?
I got into a discussion with an economics professor on Twitter who argued that tariffs of this breadth would of course not shift consumption patterns but simply lead to an increase in debt. Nominal spending would increase and inflation would result unless the Fed tightened. I think this assumption is highly suspect, though I’ll believe that we’ll see a little bit of that but thought it was still an interest perspective on how people square the “tariffs create inflationary pressure circle”.
He has to assume that consumers continue to spend the same on all other items, too. And wouldn't the additional consumers borrowing affect interest rates. Does not sound like a response along given preference and cost functions.
Do you think he's even got a clue as to what it's actually going to do? I'm not taking any bet on that being the case.
I never gave it much thought.
My objective in writing is to move the "conventional wisdom" toward what I think is more correct.
Hi Thomas -- what do you think would be the odds of someone writing something like this --that would cause Trump to change his mind (what he has left) concerning his "understanding" of teriffs?
Dunno. One woud have to know what Trump thinks the advantages of the tariff is?
I got into a discussion with an economics professor on Twitter who argued that tariffs of this breadth would of course not shift consumption patterns but simply lead to an increase in debt. Nominal spending would increase and inflation would result unless the Fed tightened. I think this assumption is highly suspect, though I’ll believe that we’ll see a little bit of that but thought it was still an interest perspective on how people square the “tariffs create inflationary pressure circle”.
He has to assume that consumers continue to spend the same on all other items, too. And wouldn't the additional consumers borrowing affect interest rates. Does not sound like a response along given preference and cost functions.